The application of the Dennis et al. (Ecol. Monogr., 61, 1991) model to data from 12 herbivore populations from the Kruger National Park, South Africa, introduces “risk assessment’ procedures into the conservation management of free-ranging species. The model enables one to predict the probability of reaching an arbitrarily defined threshold population size using census figures from censused and unmanaged populations. It also provides an objective evaluation of population persistence based on past performance. Of the 12 species investigated, five (impala